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Overheated Markets Due for 2006 Slowdown


June 27, 2005

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft expects a slowdown in home-price gains beginning in 2006, primarily in California, Nevada, Arizona, Hawaii, and other overheated markets. However, he does not anticipate a crash.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Chief Economist David Lereah expects the 30-year mortgage rate to hit 6.5 percent next year, rising from about 6.1 percent at the end of 2005.

While a drop in refinancing activity will result in fewer residential mortgage originations this year, Independent Community Bankers of America chief economist Paul Merski says the robust housing market has boosted demand for commercial loans to homebuilders.

"Community banks are optimistic to end 2005 on a strong note," says Merski. He notes that lenders are closely monitoring the housing market and being more cautious when handing out money. "Bankers know there has been a long housing boom, and we are entering the mature part of the cycle."

Source: National Mortgage News (06/27/05); Harmon, Jennifer

 
 



 
 
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